化学物危害特征描述中不确定系数制定的研究进展及其应用
Research Advances and Practical Applications of Uncertainty Factors Using in Chemical Hazard Characterization
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摘要: 不确定系数的制定是化学物危害特征描述中的一个关键步骤，对于健康指导值的推导和分析风险评估结果的不确定性具有重要意义。在实际应用中，不确定系数主要包括默认的不确定系数、额外的不确定系数和其他来源的不确定系数。默认的不确定系数主要涉及物种间外推以及物种内/人群间外推。本文详细介绍了默认不确定系数的构成、优化方法、不确定性分析的新策略和新方法以及决策流程及其应用，以期为评估者更好地理解和开展化学物危害特征描述中的不确定性分析提供科学依据。Abstract: The setting of uncertainty factor is a crucial step in chemical hazard characterization and is important for the derivation of health-based guidance values. It also serves for analysis of uncertainty in risk assessment characterization. In practice, uncertainty factor mainly include default uncertainty factors, additional uncertainty factors and uncertainty from other origins. This paper will focus on the default uncertainty factors addressed mainly to interspecies extrapolation and intraspecies/interindividual extrapolation. We will introduce in detail the composition of default uncertainty factors, optimization methodology, as well as new approaches and methods for uncertainty analysis, in decision-making processes. We will also discuss their applications, especially in food safety domain on how the hazard characterization provides scientific evidence for assessors to better understand their animal testing results and to carry out the uncertainty analysis in chemical risk assessment.
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